NCIER®

Conjecture claims

Every claim in the map classified as conjecture, in report order.

Claims

Conjecture [V] p024-02

Three state categories help show whether early encouragement might relate to practices and outcomes

Grouping states into the three aforementioned categories allowed us to understand whether early encouragement or legislation by states to implement BTAM in schools (potentially associated with stronger funding, training, or other support for BTAM) might be related to the practices and outcomes reported by principals today.

p. 24 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p024-10

2019 grouping still useful to show how early state support may have affected BTAM implementation

Nevertheless, understanding the implementation of early legislation by some states in 2019 is still useful for the purposes of this current analysis, insofar as it helps demonstrate how early state support in 2019 may have affected BTAM implementation over time across different state policy contexts.

p. 24 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p027-19

State policy context likely affects whether and how rapidly schools implement new practices

Although individual schools may adopt new school safety approaches individually or at the district level, the state policy context—that is, whether schools are subject to legal requirements or receive incentives to adopt BTAM—likely affects the extent to which and how rapidly schools implement new practices.

p. 27 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p028-15

State policy is not expected to be the primary determinant, but encouragement or funding could promo

Although we do not expect state policy context to be the primary determinant of schools’ decisions about which safety measures to implement (see Chapter 7 for a discussion of the primary drivers for initial BTAM implementation in schools), encouraging the use of BTAM or providing other supports, such as funding to state-level school safety agencies specifically for BTAM could promote adoption or influence how schools form BTAM teams and scope their responsibilities.

p. 28 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p029-13

Rural schools 78 percent official BTAM teams vs 84 percent suburban and 86 percent urban

Sample (column N undeterminable) · School-locale subgroups (urban, suburban, rural)

BTAM teams may also be slightly less common in rural settings: 78 percent of rural schools reported having official BTAM teams compared with 84 percent of suburban schools and 86 percent of urban schools.

p. 29 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p029-16

Footnote: a state could be coded as requiring threat assessment without a multidisciplinary team

For example, a state might be categorized by these authors as having a law, regulation, or policy requiring threat assessment even if the requirement did not involve that threat assessment being done by a multidisciplinary team (which is core to virtually all framings of behavioral threat assessment).

p. 29 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p033-15

Example: school may find BTAM not serving a specific student population effectively

For example, a school might conclude that its BTAM program is not serving a specific population of students effectively: An example of such a situation could be students in special education programs being assessed as posing significantly different levels of threat compared with general education students exhibiting similar concerning behavior.

p. 33 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p033-16

School might add a special education professional, collect data, or create decision aids

In this case, a school might determine that changes need to be made to their threat assessment process, for instance, by adding a special education professional to the BTAM team; collecting additional data to support assessments; or creating new decision aids that can help the BTAM team be more consistent, fair, and effective across all referred cases.

p. 33 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p056-02

Small districts (fewer than 10,000 students) approached adoption somewhat differently

With the caveat that principals in large districts were more likely to report not knowing about the specific actions their school or district took in the lead up to BTAM implementation, principals’ reports suggest that small districts (those serving fewer than 10,000 students) approached adoption somewhat differently from large districts (see Figure 7.2).

p. 56 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p058-09

Types further down the table are more likely to produce consistent results and maintain performance

Drawing on the research literature on program implementation and quality improvement, operational types that are further down the table reflect modes of BTAM implementation that are more likely to produce consistent results case by case and maintain performance over time, thanks to their standardization (see, e.g., Bohanon, Caputo Love, and Morrissey, 2021).

p. 58 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p061-06

BTAM decisions are high stakes, so questions may arise about correctness and fairness

Because the decisions made by BTAM teams can be high stakes for both the students involved and individuals concerned by student behavior and those potentially affected by any threats, questions may arise about whether decisions made by the team are correct and whether they appropriately and fairly balance student and school community safety needs.

p. 61 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p063-07

Relying on members might produce inconsistent decisions if key members are absent or turnover is fre

Notably, such practice also relies heavily on having the right people “at the table” for every case; if key BTAM team members are regularly absent from meetings or team meetings are unplanned or a team is affected by frequent staff turnover, a school’s BTAM program might reach inconsistent decisions about which interventions to use from case to case.

p. 63 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p064-03

More secondary than elementary schools have substance use treatment, likely because illicit use rise

Unsurprisingly, more secondary schools have access to substance use treatment options than elementary schools, likely because the percentage of youth reporting they use any illicit substance increases with age (National Institute on Drug Abuse [NIDA], 2023).

p. 64 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p064-08

Differences in frequency are likely related to the types of cases referred to BTAM teams

These differences in frequency with which schools use specific interventions are likely related to the types of cases referred to BTAM teams—that is, incidents that involve substance use may be rarer as part of the case types referred to BTAM teams, therefore leading schools to only rarely include such treatment as part of an intervention plan.

p. 64 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p071-11

One-third receive reports from outside providers, likely because they are in fewer cases

Sample (N = 984) · Teams that monitor some or all students progress after intervention plans

Only one-third receive periodic reports from outside service providers, likely because outside providers are involved in comparatively fewer cases relative to school personnel.

p. 71 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p083-12

Schools appear focused on supportive rather than restrictive interventions as most frequent steps

Third, schools appear to be focused on more supportive interventions, as opposed to restrictive measures, including exclusionary discipline, at least as the most frequently chosen steps in responding to incidents.

p. 83 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p091-18

Keeping students in school has substantial educational benefits and is likely more...

Although keeping students in school has substantial educational benefits and is likely more cost-effective than criminal justice involvement overall, some situations could be so serious that leaving student behavior management exclusively to the school would be impossible and inappropriate.

p. 91 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p096-01

Positive but intermediate safety relationship could suggest schools already relatively safe

The fact that principals perceive a positive (though perhaps intermediate) relationship between BTAM and feelings of safety at school could suggest that schools are already relatively safe spaces, in part, because extreme violent incidents remain rare.

p. 96 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p100-06

Data suggest many schools have sustainability factors in place, but more support could strengthen su

As we discuss in this section, our data suggest that many schools already have some of the suitable factors in place to support the continued operation of their BTAM programs into the future, but there are areas where additional support could strengthen BTAM sustainability and continuous improvement.

p. 100 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p102-23

Patterns suggest changes aimed to improve BTAM in context, not respond to threats to its functioning

These patterns suggest that schools made changes to BTAM processes to help improve how BTAM worked in their specific school or community context, rather than in response to challenges that might otherwise jeopardize the effective functioning of a school BTAM program.

p. 102 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [I] p104-01

External challenges are outside team or school control, potentially explaining why hard to resolve

rather than issues directly under the control of a school BTAM team or the school more generally, potentially explaining why they may be especially difficult to resolve.

p. 104 · NCIER Claim Map

Why inferred The sentence crosses a page break: this quote is the page 104 part and the sentence begins on page 103 (claim p103-08). Full sentence (pages 103–104): “Importantly, these top two challenges relate to external factors rather than issues directly under the control of a school BTAM team or the school more generally, potentially explaining why they may be especially difficult to resolve.”

Conjecture [V] p104-13

Schools in states without 2019 BTAM legislation or policy more likely to cite training gaps

Schools in states that did not promote BTAM via legislation or non-codified policy in 2019 were also more likely to identify training gaps as an issue, suggesting that some state policies related to BTAM may specifically include providing training to schools at no or reduced cost.

p. 104 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p110-05

Inconsistent training may hinder competencies in risk assessment, bias and intervention matching

This inconsistency in training may hinder the ability of BTAM teams to develop critical competencies, for instance related to assessing risk, mitigating biases, and appropriately matching interventions and supports to individual student needs—all of which are foundational to effective violence prevention.

p. 110 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p110-20

Relying on a single continuous-improvement method is unlikely to yield needed information

Similarly, although many schools are engaging in one activity related to continuous improvement within their BTAM program, relying on a single method is unlikely to yield the kind and quantity of information schools need to ensure that their BTAM program is working well and will continue to do so into the future.

p. 110 · NCIER Claim Map
Conjecture [V] p110-21

Without multiple robust feedback mechanisms, schools risk missing opportunities to improve BTAM

Without multiple robust mechanisms for gathering feedback and assessing outcomes across cases, schools risk missing opportunities to improve the effectiveness of their BTAM programs and ensure that both specific interventions and the program as a whole are yielding the intended impact.

p. 110 · NCIER Claim Map

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