Assessment Themes

details about each of NTAC’s 20 Assessment Themes, including the individual’s recent life stressors, concerning communications, and history of contact with law enforcement (see STEP 4: Gather Information to Assess for Risk).

During this process, information will be gathered from a variety of community systems and should address the Assessment Themes identified by decades of NTAC research on targeted violence.

Doing so ensures all relevant information is gathered and considered when assessing if an individual of concern poses a risk of violence while also identifying possible prevention strategies.

For example, if a supervisor from an individual’s current workplace provides a starkly different description of the individual compared to a supervisor from a prior workplace, the BTAU may seek to identify any traumatic events or other situational factors that occurred during the timeframe of the individual’s current employment that could explain the dramatic change in behavior.

In addition to observing the individual’s general thinking and state of mind, the BTAU should prioritize open-ended questions regarding each of the Assessment Themes identified later in this section.

In many cases, an individual of concern may be experiencing a personal crisis or other stressful event.

While gathering information from the subject’s formal and informal systems, BTAUs should focus on exploring each of NTAC’s 20 Assessment Themes.

Assessment Themes are not intended to be used as a checklist. The purpose of Assessment Themes is to provide a broad scope through which to understand an individual’s behavior and the context in which they are operating.

These themes have been identified by decades of Secret Service research examining targeted violence in a variety of forms, including acts of mass violence targeting public spaces in the United States. Assessment Themes are based on frequently observed or particularly noteworthy factors in the backgrounds of those who have engaged in previous acts of targeted violence.

Gathering this information will allow the BTAU to assess if the individual poses a risk of violence and plan the interventions needed to mitigate that risk.

Information about Assessment Themes should be gathered using the Systems Approach described previously, namely through records checks, an interview with the individual of concern, corroborative interviews with others, and a review of open-source social media.

Examining each of these Assessment Themes will provide the BTAU with comprehensive information to assess if the individual poses a risk of violence by identifying the contextual themes that may impact the individual’s thinking and behavior, the behavioral themes they have exhibited, and the summative themes that must be considered as part of an overall assessment.

Exploring each theme is necessary for a thorough assessment and may uncover other avenues of inquiry.

The Assessment Themes identified here are not individually predictors of violence but are factors that should be evaluated in context when conducting a behavioral threat assessment.

Further, some of the identified themes involve activities that are protected by the Constitution and should be viewed with those protections in mind.

Significant setbacks, losses, and other life challenges that may be acute (e.g., romantic breakups) or chronic (e.g., ongoing medical conditions).

Stressors can be experienced across several life domains, including family/romantic relationships, social interactions, work or school environments, personal health, legal actions, and other identified areas.

Specific examples include being bullied or harassed by others, financial instability, job loss, divorce or child custody issues, and failed life aspirations.

Family dynamics or home environments that negatively impact an individual, including family discord, abuse, drug use, criminality, domestic violence, mental/physical health concerns, death, and dissolution of relationships.

Conversely, positive home life factors may include supportive families, healthy relationships, and other dynamics that could support intervention strategies to mitigate risk.

Current or previous history of mental health symptoms that negatively impact the individual, particularly when left untreated, including paranoia, delusions, hallucinations, depression, and suicidality.

Mental health history may or may not include prior formal diagnoses, hospitalizations, and treatment (e.g., prescription medication).

A history of criminal behaviors identified in formal records, including arrests, convictions, and other legal actions. Criminal history may also include other criminal behavior and contacts with law enforcement and the courts that have not resulted in official legal actions.

Criminal behavior outside of formal records may be identified during the assessment through interviews with family, friends, coworkers, classmates, and others familiar with the individual.

A pattern of strained or conflicted relationships with family members, romantic partners, friends, coworkers, classmates, neighbors, or other members of the community. Interpersonal difficulties may include an inability to form or sustain positive relationships with others due to the individual’s inappropriate or concerning behaviors.

A pattern of engaging in criminal or inappropriate behavior for which the consequences were either absent or not commensurate with the behavior.

Examples of past behaviors that may not have received appropriate consequences could include threatening communications, domestic violence, physical/sexual assaults, inappropriate touching of others, stalking, and harassment.

Any violent, threatening, or disturbing communications which may be conveyed verbally (e.g., in-person or via phone), in writing (e.g., journals or drawings), electronically (e.g., text messages or emails), online (e.g., websites, blogs, or social media), or by other means.

The content of the concerning communications may reveal information on threats, grievances, violent intention, feelings of hopelessness/suicidality, obsessions, paranoid thinking, or a fascination with violence or weapons.

An unusual or excessive interest in weapons, violence, gore, prior attacks, notorious killers, or other concerning topics.

Fascination with weapons and violence can be demonstrated in a variety of ways, including stockpiling or manufacturing weapons, being described as obsessed with weapons, consuming or producing violent or graphic media, and writing stories or lyrics indicating a desire to harm others.

Particular concern should arise if the individual demonstrates an idolization of or desire to emulate past attackers.

Prior acts of physical violence against people, animals, or property that may appear in criminal records or may be observed or experienced by others, including physical and sexual assaults, domestic/family violence, animal cruelty, aggressively menacing behaviors, or arsons.

A history of violence may reveal signs of an escalation in aggressive behavior, for example, moving from property crimes to crimes against persons.

A pattern of conduct that willfully and maliciously causes another to feel bullied, stalked, persecuted, threatened, injured, or attacked.

The victim of this behavior may or may not have a pre-existing relationship with the individual of concern. Examples of victims with a pre-existing relationship to the individual include romantic partners, family members, coworkers, classmates, or neighbors, while those without a prior relationship may include elected officials, government employees, or celebrities.

Extreme ideological, political, or conspiratorial beliefs that advocate hate or violence, form the basis of an individual’s worldview or significantly influence an individual’s daily life.

Extreme beliefs may be based on distortion of facts (e.g., conspiracy theories) or may advocate distrust, hatred, or the use of violence targeting others based on biases against a particular race, religion, national origin, sexual orientation, gender, or gender identity.

An intense or obsessive preoccupation with a person, event, activity, or belief to the point where it negatively impacts aspects of an individual’s life.

Fixations often carry an angry or emotional undertone and may be evidenced through an individual’s extreme beliefs, grievances, interest in violence or weapons, and stalking or harassing behaviors.

Changes in behavior observable to others, including notable shifts in mental, social, occupational, physical, or interpersonal functioning.

This may be evidenced through changes in mood, appearance, or hygiene; withdrawing or isolating from others; new or increased substance use; sudden aggressive, violent, or threatening behavior; changes in work or school attendance or performance; signs of depression or paranoia; or other uncharacteristic actions that demonstrate a distinct change from an individual’s baseline behavior.

Feeling hopeless, despondent, desperate, or out of options.

An individual’s inability to perceive an improvement in their situation may lead to feelings of extreme distress, depression, frustration, and the perception that violence is the only option to cope with their circumstances.

A pattern of intense or escalating anger or aggression that is observed through the individual’s behavior, communication, or reported feelings.

This may be marked by impulsive angry outbursts, significant overreaction to circumstances or events, or frequent episodes of verbal or physical aggression directed at others.

Evidence of unusual inconsistencies in an individual’s communications and behaviors that may occur across the various community systems in their lives, including how they behave at work, home, school, or in social or romantic contexts.

When inconsistencies are found, these may be indicative of efforts to conceal violent intentions or behavior.

Specific steps taken to prepare to carry out an act of violence, including researching, visiting, or following potential targets; researching, manufacturing, acquiring, or practicing with weapons; documenting preparations for an attack through hit lists, to-do lists, maps, or manifestos; researching prior attacks and tactics; developing attack plans; researching logistical concerns; or using deceptive practices to hide activities.

Individuals may also engage in final acts intended to make a statement or to prepare for their inevitable arrest or death. These acts may include drafting a last will and testament, making financial arrangements for family members, leaving farewell messages or notes, posting goodbye messages online, and selling or giving away personal possessions.

The reason(s) why the individual engaged in the behavior that elicited concern or brought them to the attention of law enforcement.

Motive also includes assessing the reasons that may drive an individual to carry out an act of violence.

The individual’s behaviors or communications have caused fear, alarm, worry, or distress in those who observed them.

Particular attention should be paid to whether others are in fear for their safety as a result of the individual’s behavior.

Family members, friends, coworkers, neighbors, law enforcement, mental health professionals, and others may have been concerned about an individual’s demeanor, mental wellbeing, threatening or disturbing communications, harassing or other violent behavior, obsession with weapons or violent topics, isolating or withdrawing from others, substance use or abuse, or other concerning behaviors.

Current or future ability to access weapons that could be used to cause harm, including firearms, bladed weapons, explosives, chemicals, or poisons.

Access to weapons may include those that are readily available to the individual in their home, whether secured or unsecured, as well as those accessible in the homes of relatives or friends.

Contextual themes represent significant elements of an individual’s personal circumstances and surroundings which may negatively impact their thinking and behavior.

Some of these Assessment Themes have their own body of existing research examining their impact on an individual, and prior NTAC research has found that many past attackers had experienced substantial negative experiences related to these contextual themes as well.

Gathering both positive details (e.g., caring and supportive family) and negative details (e.g., familial discord and violence) about these factors will establish the context of past, present, and impending circumstances within which the individual of concern is operating and will inform the BTAU’s intervention strategies.

Stressors • Home life • Mental health • Criminal history • Interpersonal difficulties • Lack of consequences

Central to assessing whether an individual poses a risk of targeted violence is understanding the nature of concerning behaviors commonly observed in previous attackers.

While the presence of these behaviors alone cannot predict if an individual will become violent, it will inform the final assessment and management strategies employed by BTAUs.

For example, if an assessment reveals an individual is fixated on past attackers, has grown increasingly isolated, has posted concerning violent content on social media, and has been researching upcoming public gatherings, the BTAU will need to develop the appropriate strategies to manage the risk the individual may pose toward public spaces or other potential targets.

Concerning or threatening communications • Interest in violent topics • History of violence • Stalking, harassing, or bullying • Extreme beliefs • Fixations • Behavior changes • Desperation or despair • Intense anger or aggression • Inconsistency • Planning and final acts

Summative themes represent key questions that must be answered as part of an overall assessment.

BTAUs will be better equipped to make an informed assessment of risk if they have identified what is, or could be, motivating someone to become violent.

They will also need to understand if the people who know or have had contact with the individual have been concerned, especially if their concern is related to safety.

Lastly, BTAUs will need to assess if the individual has the means and capability to cause harm by gathering information about the weapons the individual has access to or could potentially obtain.

Motive • Elicited concern in others • Access to weapons

The BTAU should make this assessment by considering all the information gathered about the Assessment Themes using the Systems Approach, while also considering any other situational factors.

This approach should be tailored specifically to the individual and the factors identified utilizing the Systems Approach and the Assessment Themes described in STEP 4.

Assessment Themes: Areas of inquiry that, when explored, will provide a contextual understanding of an individual’s mindset, behavior, and circumstances and will allow the BTAU to assess if the individual poses a risk of violence.